BY DURO OKINBALOYE

In every election, or in fact any
competition anywhere, the losers are bound to be disappointed. It is a very
natural human tendency. Losing election to offices is akin to getting to the
final of any major sporting competition like football’s European Champions
League or the World Cup and then lose out. For all the prior hard work to just
come unstuck in a day will certainly grate. But then, like they say, ‘it is
what it is,’ only one person or team can take the trophy of a particular
competition. And the earlier contenders for prizes realized this the better.
Life itself is generally a system of win some, lose some. This reality however
seems to be lost on the leadership as well as the rank and file of the Labour
party in Nigeria, regarding the recent presidential election.

 

Their Vice-Presidential candidate
of the party, Mr Datti Baba-Ahmed, had brazenly declared that the
president-elect, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress
(APC) must not be sworn in on May 29th as expected, ‘or that will be ending
democracy.’ He added that the certificate of return presented to Tinubu by INEC
Chairman, Professor Mahmood Yakubu is a ‘dud.’ His gripe is borne out of  a structurally weak clause in the
constitution, that is awaiting its day of interpretation at the country’s
supreme court anyway. This highly unfortunate statement is detrimental to the
peace, unity and progress in a country the is already bedevilled by a number of
peculiar social-economic woes.

 

Datti’s incendiary call is yet
another instance of similarly misjudged, misguided and largely unsubstantiated,
inflammatory vituperations by many over-passionate Obidients — as the
supporters of Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of Labour party are fondly
called.

 

Another ‘Obidient,’ a hitherto
unknown Mr Okafor Ibe, a businessman from Anambra state, recently delayed an
Ibom Airline plane flying Abuja to Lagos from take-off. The unruly passenger
threatened that Tinubu must not be sworn In. He had to be forcefully removed by
airport security agents. As he was bundled out, he kicked and yelled like a
petulant child, shouting to imaginary ‘Obidients’ to come to his aid. One can
only imagine how catastrophic things could have turned if the man had carried
out his outbursts violently and mid-air.

 

Similarly, online mediums are
replete with Obedients invoking  abysmal
hatred against their country-just because Obi lost an election many of them had
placed their bottom dollars on that he would win. The soundness of that
judgement, in the first place is seriously debatable if not laughable. It ran
against all reasonable political permutations in Nigeria of today. The most
ardent but dispassionate Obi supporter should have known better.

 

Yet again, another Obedient, US
based Nigerian renowned writer, Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie, wrote an open
letter  to President Joe Biden of the
US  in The Atlantic, titled, ‘Nigeria’s
Hollow Democracy,’ wherein she picked issues with US State Department for
congratulating the declared president-elect in Nigeria, Mr Tinubu. Armed with
no shred of evidence at all or only negligible ones at best, she lamented that
the election result was compromised against her candidate. Adichie, albeit had
tried to appear non-partisan in her letter but in a subsequent interview on Nigerian
Arise TV station, she gave the game away as another over-passionate Obi
supporter. Hence, a better understanding of 
the trajectory of her angry letter to Biden.

 

In her interview with Arise TV,
Adichie lamented that INEC chairman, professor Yakubu had ‘an opportunity for
heroism,’ but added, ‘I think he wasted it spectacularly.’  ‘Because he could very easily have become the
hero of not just Nigerians but Africa, because so many Africans were watching
and they were so inspired by what happened before this election.., the Obedient
movement,’ she said. One wonders by what yardstick Ms Adichie knew many
Nigerians and in fact African(s) were so inspired by the Obedient movement.
Pray, if this woman was not partial, why was she making complimentary reference
to ‘the Obedient movement’ as the paragon of excellence and not any other party
movement, like the ‘Atikulated’ of Atiku Abubakar’s Peoples’ Democratic Party
for instance. It was therefore a clear partisan venom she spewed in her letter
to Biden. Unbridled and naked bias!

 

This bitter narratives of the
Obidients isn’t very surprising.  Even
right from before the election, many Labour party  hotheads have demonstrated their over the top
passion, by brazen campaign of calumny against the person of Senator Tinubu.
They peddled relentless rumours that Tinubu was too sick to contest or rule.
Denigrating, doctored photographs of the APC candidate in soiled pants,
suggesting incontinence, made the rounds on the Internet. To these category of
Obidients. It was a do-or-die matter for Peter Obi to win. The much vilified
would be president-elect nevertheless went on to complete barnstorming
campaigns in all the 36 States of the country and Abuja, without any incident!
Some Obedients army also claimed Tinubu was simply too old for the top job.
Their candidate too, Obi, isn’t a youngster either anyway at 61. These
over-passionate Obidients simply got their reasoning about age and competence
beclouded. Joe Biden is 80 and managing the most powerful country on the
planet. History also recalls elderly folks who became invaluable leaders to
their countries: General Charles De Gaulle of France, Golda Meir of Israel,
Konrad Adenauer of Germany, to mention a few. A Yoruba proverb also
corroborates that. “bi omode ba ni aso bi agba, ko le ni akisa bi agba.”
Literally meaning if a young child by any chance has as much clothes as an
elderly man, he couldn’t have amassed as many rags as the elderly one.” In
other words, nothing trumps the wisdom and experience of the elderly in any
society.

 

This subset of the Obidients,
intoxicated with an Obi-must-win mentality were further buoyed by certain
polls, assuring that their candidate was coasting to a landslide victory. Such
polls were obviously unreliable because of their dodgy samples. No one uses the
sample taken in just a locality of a country and passes it as reflective of the
whole country’s thinking. And by the way, even if the samples were reliable,
who still doesn’t know that polls are not to believed one hundred per cent
anymore, especially since Donald Trump’s titanic upstaging of the super
favourite, Hillary Clinton in the US’s 2016 election.

 

In another reminiscence of the
America’s election, as Donald Trump baselessly allege that 2020 election was
rigged against him, making his gullible supporters buy the ruse; the Obidients
too are shouting on the rooftops, that the election was stolen from them. Their
claim is as risible as Donald Trump’s.

 

Many Labour Party supporters
hinged their vote irregularities claim on the fact that INEC did not upload the
results to its official portal, the IReV in real time ‘as promised by INEC’
prior to the election. INEC blamed technical hitches but what’s important is
that no polling agent(s) or perhaps an insignificant number of them has come
forward to claim discrepancy between the results collated on the field and the
one eventually announced as well as posted on the IReV.  Also, although not encouraging, pockets of
vote irregularities were reported around the country. This nevertheless were
also reported even in the Obidients’ heartlands; wherein social media accounts
saw stalwarts intimidating opposing voters. Like INEC rightly said these few
incidents are too immaterial to warrant invalidating the whole vote.

 

Hence, the continued
rabble-rousing by many of Peter Obi supporters, charging the political
atmosphere unnecessarily, makes one see the need to point out to them some
unassailable facts against their cause; that they seem oblivious of or are
conveniently ignoring.

 

Firstly is that their party,
which had been in existence for years but largely anonymous until this recent
election, came THIRD in the nationwide polls’ tally-not even second! In the
2019 presidential  election by the way,
Labour party got a whopping 5,000 votes, throughout the whole country-wherein
millions of votes were cast! That wasn’t the party to win the whole country in
just the next election-perhaps in the future. So it really boggles the mind
that a party that came a distant third in an election is attempting to stifle
the jugular of the nation with such a reckless abandon-even over the party that
came second. What an irony! The Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, which came
second (though it claims grievance too) but is using a much more dignified approach
to this. There are procedures for adjudication, at the courts, where the
aggrieved parties have lodged their cases. And no one can begrudge anyone this
constitutional right but the Obidients now have to wait and let the law take
its course at the judicial level, rather than holding the country to ransom as
they currently do with their divisive, crying foul.

 

Secondly and very importantly,
while there is no gainsaying that Obi ran an incredible campaign, with flashes
of brilliance here and there but sadly, his popularity didn’t cut across the
vast swathes of the entire country-a fundamental factor to winning such an
election! (Someone else who managed that brilliantly was the late MKO Abiola in
the famous June 12, 1993 election). As much as the Obidients may not like it,
there are Nigerian states, where Peter Obi, unlike any of his fellow
contestants, scored very abysmally low votes. In Zamfara for instance, he
scored a paltry 1,660 votes, a meagre 0.3% in a state where about 500,000 votes
were up for grabs! And another slight 1,889 in Jigawa, a mere 0.2%, where about
800,000 votes were eventually cast. Similar woeful counts were recorded for him
in many core Northern states like Sokoto, Borno, Yobe, and Katsina states;
among other not so impressive results in that region of the country.  Let’s do away with euphemisms now, Peter Obi
was largely unpopular in large areas of the Northern states of Nigeria- a kind
of persona non grata. Any elementary permutations should reveal that a
candidate will need the support of at least two major regions of the country’s
three, to win the majority votes across the country-the first part of the
criteria to win a presidential election in Nigeria- and by extension, to
enhance scaling the second hurdle of winning at least 25% of the votes in 2/3
of the 36 states plus/and Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory.

 

The current president, Muhammadu
Buhari, during his time in The Congress for Progressives change ( CPC),
repeatedly failed (three times) in his quest for the presidency of Nigeria.
Yes, Buhari was failing successfully and freely, languishing in that political
abyss until he got the right party configuration and the right alliances behind
him in 2015 and also 2019. The workable alliance in APC garnered him the
support of majority of the Northern region voters and those of the South West.  By contrast, Labour Party and Peter Obi
didn’t have the same type of formidable, workable alliance in place that
couldn’t have nicked them the presidency. 
In fact, Peter Obi was an eleventh hour defector from the PDP, the main
opposition party. He was in fact their vice-presidential candidate in the 2019
election. Peter Obi only left for Labour Party a few months to the election,
just because he couldn’t secure the PDP presidential ticket. From there on, he
had his works cut out for him, even though he ended up performing much better than
many people had expected!

 

Hence, getting the arrangement
right and on time, is not a walk in the park. This is where many of Tinubu’s
opponents made the mistake of not realising that he is a highly deft and an
accomplished political strategist! A master of the game. A bulldozer (like his
moniker) the Jagaban, who against many high-profile, daunting orchestrated
obstacles in his way still overcame.

 

In the latest election, Obi under
the banner of Labour party was only majorly on a roll in the Eastern part of
the country. That was because of Obi’s clout, as an  individual (not the party), with some stellar
campaign performances, got many more adherents to his brand; enabling him to
win a handful of more states outside of his native Eastern part of the country;
notably in Lagos, Nasarawa, Plateau and Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory.
But sadly this wasn’t enough as the criteria to win, according to the
constitution, involve winning the overall majority of votes cast across the
country as well as at least 25% of votes cast in two-third of the country  (24 states ) and Abuja.

 

Here, Mr Datti Baba-Ahmed’s
erudite claim over section 134 comes to the fore. Yes. Labour party won Abuja
by 59%, (a victory credited them still by the same INEC they accused of rigging
the election against them). However, as Baba-Ahmed and fellow-travellers want
to believe, does winning Abuja and the handful of other states they did, make
them fulfil the condition to win the election? The ‘wining Abuja’ bit of the constitution,
even according to common sense, is in fact the junior partner of the two-edged
condition of the section 134, Subsection 2 of the 1999 constitution. Or is
Datti Baba-Ahmed and the other belligerent Obidients suggesting their more
votes in Abuja should now trump the wishes of the majority of the electorates
in the rest parts of the country who didn’t 
vote them? That Abuja clause in section 134, as well intentioned as the
architects of it may have been (as a supposed hub of people from all parts of the
country); it is nevertheless a clear constitutional misadventure, with the
tendency to torpedo the wishes of more Nigerians outside of Abuja. To uphold
the condition of subsection 2, will be a draconian, travesty of justice and
equity.

 

But worse still, the Labour party
supporters are apparently now pushing their luck, by causing so much
disaffection in the Nigerian society via their relentless narratives that the
elections results were compromised against them. For crying out loud, any painstaking
and dispassionate assessment of the Nigerian peculiar political environment
would have shown to anyone that the Labour party wasn’t going to win 25%
percent of votes in about 25 states of the country nor the presidency! Not even
the most optimistic supporter of Obi and the Labour party could have wagered
that.

 

Though it isn’t something to be
proud of but it is still what it is. Nigeria is still inherently divided along,
ethnic, cultural and religious lines. As such, the calculation towards winning
the highest office in the land must be meticulously planned, in almost an
infallible manner or an unwary candidate would end up with a well-bruised nose.

 

Of the three major regions of the
country, according to the latest data, the North still has the most registered
voters and it is predominantly Muslim. So it doesn’t look very feasible that Mr
Peter Obi, a Christian (his name screams it) will miraculously sweep all these
vast Muslim votes in this place. The only ameliorating ground to circumvent
this hurdle as a Christian, is to pick a strong Muslim, running mate from the
North. But apparently, Mr Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed did not meet that criteria. He
even lost his own poling unit in Kaduna State to the PDP. Furthermore, Peter
Obi isn’t going to coast to any significant victory in the South West (Tinubu’s
homeland and ethnic stronghold). Comparatively, Obi as well had unprecedented
landslides in his native South East. He had hitherto unheard of high radio
wins; 93.59% in Anambra and 93.91% in Enugu.

 

In Tinubu’s case (the eventual
winner) his permutations meant he regarded the votes in his native South West
as a given as well as bank on votes in the Northern region because he is also a
Muslim-his full names are Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

 

Beyond this, from historical
perspectives, though regrettable and not worthy of edification, there are other
‘no love lost’ tendencies between certain regions of Nigeria, wherein anyone
can predict where there may not be torrents of votes from one to the other.
Hence, the pattern of voting in Nigeria is congenitally complex but largely
predictable at the same time- except in perhaps certain exceptional
circumstances where different intervening variables may alter the calculations
and result.

 

Hence, the Obedients strident and
vociferous cry of rigging against them is largely a fallacy, just cause
disaffection in the country. By the way, the same INEC recorded victories for
them in the FCT, Nasarawa, Plateau, Edo states, and even Tinubu’s domain, Lagos
state! Why didn’t INEC rig against the Labour party in these unexpected states
they won? Perhaps rigging suddenly became impracticable for INEC in these
states, where Obi had won against all odds! It is simply like the case of it is
fine when decisions favour them but they scream blue murder with all the sinews
in their body when it is otherwise. What sense of entitlement, a slap in the
face of decency and good spirit of sportsmanship. The ever belligerent
Obedients army need to be reminded that passion alone don’t win elections,
numbers do. Hence, they need to sheath their sword, end their disruptive drums
of war and let the country move forward!

 

We have a president-elect in
Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a seasoned 
administrator with bags of experience under his belt. He is a democracy
enthusiast and fighter. One of those who from the trenches of NADECO, frontally
confronted the tone-defeat, democracy-scuttling and repressing General Sani
Abacha. Many of his starry eyed opponents of today didn’t know how immensely
Tinubu has paid his dues to Nigerian democracy.

 

He later became a two-timed
governor of Lagos state and later a senator. As a governor in Lagos state, he
rejuvenated the economy of the state to seismic growth proportions. He pretty
much laid the foundation of the financial success the state in enjoying now.
There are reports that if Lagos were a country on its own, it will now be the
5th largest economy in Africa!

 

As we look forward to the
inauguration of the president-elect, all major parties in the election,  other stake holders and all Nigerians need
now come together to support the president-elect, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a
seasoned administrator, who should also do well to form a government of
national unity- incorporating talents from across all the parties’ spectrum-so
the country can move forward to much needed development.

 

Okinbaloye is a London-based
freelance journalist.